Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelLAFC on top: Denis Bouanga to test the keeper, and Rafael Navarro kept busy stopping them.
LAFC v St. Louis CITY SC prediction
LAFC are favourites on our numbers: 52% to win, against 24% for St. Louis CITY SC and 24% for a draw. If you want one score, our predicted score is LAFC 2–1 St. Louis CITY SC, the most likely LAFC win (10%). Our expected goals are 1.8 for LAFC and 1.2 for St. Louis CITY SC, 3.0 in all. Both sides are more likely than not to score (59%) and three or more goals is 58%.
On form, LAFC have one win, three draws and two defeats from their last six games, and St. Louis CITY SC have two wins, no draws and four defeats. Of the players, Denis Bouanga (LAFC) tops both our lists, with 3.6 shots and 1.6 on target expected if they start. Christopher Durkin of St. Louis CITY SC is the most booked player in either squad, once every 3 games in 2026.
We expect LAFC to have 18.3 shots (6.5 on target) and St. Louis CITY SC 11.0 (3.4 on target), and corners at 6.6 to 3.6. That points to LAFC doing more of the attacking. For Bawler's pick we have gone with LAFC or Draw, Rafael Navarro 1+ Foul Committed and Denis Bouanga 1+ Shot on Target. The chance all three land is 48% on our numbers, so the fair price is 11/10, or 2.07.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
LAFC · last 6
St. Louis CITY SC · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
LAFC or draw is 76% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025–2026 and 2026, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
MLS table →Common questions
Who will win LAFC vs St. Louis CITY SC?
Bawler's model rates this match: LAFC are favoured (52% win probability vs 24% for St. Louis CITY SC, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for LAFC vs St. Louis CITY SC?
Bawler's predicted score is LAFC 2-1 St. Louis CITY SC: the most likely score if LAFC win, which is the likeliest result (52%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.6%. Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict LAFC vs St. Louis CITY SC?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives LAFC 52%, the draw 24% and St. Louis CITY SC 24%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in LAFC vs St. Louis CITY SC?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 59% chance. That is based on LAFC expecting 1.83 goals and St. Louis CITY SC 1.20.
Over or under 2.5 goals in LAFC vs St. Louis CITY SC?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 58%.
When are the LAFC v St. Louis CITY SC line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for LAFC v St. Louis CITY SC?
LAFC or Draw (76%), Rafael Navarro 1+ Foul Committed (78%), Denis Bouanga 1+ Shot on Target (74%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 48% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.07). 18+, please gamble responsibly.