How it finished
Kosovo beat Republic of Ireland 1–0. Bawler's model had Kosovo in front at 48% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 1 was scored. Kosovo had 22 shots (8 on target) to Republic of Ireland's 3 (1), with 57% of the ball against 43%. Expected goals finished 2.3 to 0.3.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected from each side before kickoff, next to how they had been doing.
Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them. Each card is drawn on one scale, so the two bars are directly comparable. “Above recent” means our forecast is higher than their average over the last six.
What we published
How likely we said the big moments were, before kickoff.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 72%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Kosovo vs Republic of Ireland?
Kosovo beat Republic of Ireland 1–0. Bawler's model had Kosovo in front at 48% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 1 was scored. Kosovo had 22 shots (8 on target) to Republic of Ireland's 3 (1), with 57% of the ball against 43%. Expected goals finished 2.3 to 0.3.
What was the final score in Kosovo vs Republic of Ireland?
Kosovo 1–0 Republic of Ireland, played on 24 Sept 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Kosovo 48%, the draw 26% and Republic of Ireland 26%.
What were the stats in Kosovo vs Republic of Ireland?
Full-time: Possession 57%–43%, Expected goals (xG) 2.3–0.3, Shots 22–3, Shots on target 8–1, Shots inside box 16–3, Big chances 3–1, Corners 1–0, Saves 1–5, Fouls 12–15, Offsides 2–0, Yellow cards 0–2.
Did both teams score in Kosovo vs Republic of Ireland?
No. It finished 1–0, so Republic of Ireland failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Kosovo vs Republic of Ireland right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Kosovo or draw 74%, it finished Kosovo won (48% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 78%, it finished Missed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 54%, it finished Missed.