FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Kosovo 1–1 AustriaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Kosovo
1–1
Draw
Austria

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Austria or draw at 75%. Bawler had Kosovo at 25%, the draw at 26% and Austria at 49%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Kosovo win
25%
Draw
26%
Result
Austria win
49%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.1 – 1.7
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 0.5
From the match itself

The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Kosovo to win
Pre-match: 25%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 77%, anchored by Austria's 0.53 xG advantage and 49% win probability commanding the match dynamics."

More from Bawler