Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelToo close to call the result, so we back the game to be busy: shots, corners and efforts on target.
Kairat Almaty v Mjällby AIF prediction
Our model only just leans towards Mjällby AIF here: 38% to win, with Kairat Almaty on 33% and the draw on 29%. Our predicted score is Kairat Almaty 0–1 Mjällby AIF: the most likely score if Mjällby AIF win, at 11%. Kairat Almaty are expected to score 1.2 goals and Mjällby AIF 1.3, 2.5 between them. Both sides are more likely than not to score (51%) and three or more goals is 45%.
In their last six games Kairat Almaty have one win, four draws and one defeat, while Mjällby AIF have two wins, three draws and one defeat. Both drew their most recent match. Of the players, Marc Gual (Kairat Almaty) tops both our lists, with 2.4 shots and 0.9 on target expected if they start.
We expect Kairat Almaty to have 11.3 shots (4.3 on target) and Mjällby AIF 12.8 (4.0 on target), and corners at 4.5 to 4.7. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Over 19.5 Total Shots, Over 6.5 Total Corners and Over 5.5 Total Shots on Target. The chance all three land is 60% on our numbers, so the fair price is 4/6, or 1.67.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Kairat Almaty · last 6
Mjällby AIF · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Mjällby AIF or draw is 67% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who will win Kairat Almaty vs Mjällby AIF?
Bawler's model rates this match: Mjällby AIF are favoured (38% win probability vs 33% for Kairat Almaty, 29% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Kairat Almaty vs Mjällby AIF?
Bawler's predicted score is Kairat Almaty 0-1 Mjällby AIF: the most likely score if Mjällby AIF win, which is the likeliest result (38%). Our model puts that exact score at 10.5%. Expected total goals: 2.5.
How does Bawler predict Kairat Almaty vs Mjällby AIF?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Kairat Almaty 33%, the draw 29% and Mjällby AIF 38%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Kairat Almaty vs Mjällby AIF?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. That is based on Kairat Almaty expecting 1.19 goals and Mjällby AIF 1.29.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Kairat Almaty vs Mjällby AIF?
Bawler's model expects 2.5 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 45%.
When are the Kairat Almaty v Mjällby AIF line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Kairat Almaty v Mjällby AIF?
Over 19.5 Total Shots (80%), Over 6.5 Total Corners (78%), Over 5.5 Total Shots on Target (82%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 60% chance, a fair price of 4/6 (1.67). 18+, please gamble responsibly.