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Bawler / Belgium vs France / Recap
FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Monday, 28 September 2026

Belgium 0–1 FranceMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 28 September 2026

Belgium
0–1
France win
France
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Belgium at 47%, draw at 25%, France at 29%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Belgium to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Belgium win
47%
Draw
25%
France win
29%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.78 – 1.35
Total 3.13
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.1 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 82%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 71%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 38%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Belgium's 0.53 expected-goals advantage and Lukaku's creative load make Over 1.5 Goals the model's 82% call, with both offences positioned to find the net despite France's defensive structure."

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