What we expect
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Italy vs Belgium?
Bawler's model rates this match: Belgium are favoured (62% win probability vs 17% for Italy, 21% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Italy vs Belgium?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Italy 1-2 Belgium (9.8% probability). Expected total goals: 3.26.
How does Bawler predict Italy vs Belgium?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Italy 17%, the draw 21% and Belgium 62%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Italy vs Belgium?
BTTS: Yes (58% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.06 and away expected goals 2.20.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Italy vs Belgium?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.26. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).