Who will win Ipswich Town vs Sunderland?

Bawler's model rates this match: Ipswich Town are favoured (40% win probability vs 31% for Sunderland, 29% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Ipswich Town vs Sunderland?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Ipswich Town 1-0 Sunderland (13.2% probability). Expected total goals: 2.52.

How does Bawler predict Ipswich Town vs Sunderland?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Ipswich Town 40%, the draw 29% and Sunderland 31%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Ipswich Town vs Sunderland?

BTTS: No (53% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 1.65 and away expected goals 0.88.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Ipswich Town vs Sunderland?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.52. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Match prediction·England: Premier League·Saturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC

Ipswich Town vs Sunderland

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability

40.0% home29.3% draw30.8% away

📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate

Ipswich Townstep

Sunderland

1.65Base xG · rolling 26-match0.88

no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob

1.65Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.88

Ipswich average 6.2 corners per game at home this season (24 competitive matches). Sunderland average 3.2 corners per game away from home this season (20 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate

home windrawaway win

Team news — absences and latest club updates· as of 13 Aug 2026

Ipswich TownHome

Unavailable / doubtful

Jaden Philogene — Hamstring — described as 'small', scan completed. Missed both pre-season friendlies.
Expected return: O'Neil: 'He's expected to be back soon... the plan is to get him ready for Sunderland' (GW1, 22 Aug).
Azor Matusiwa — Muscle injury, post-surgery (operated after May promotion)
Expected return: Unlikely to feature in any pre-season friendly. O'Neil: 'They both have a chance for Sunderland... but there…
Jack Taylor — Knee cartilage procedure, post-surgery (operated after May promotion)
Expected return: Back training on grass, racing to be fit for GW1 (22 Aug); 'no risks taken'. Genuine doubt.
Christian Walton — Foot injury
Expected return: O'Neil: 'He's going to be out for a little while, but he's progressing well.' No date given.
Kasey McAteer — Transfermarkt flags an 'unknown injury' dated 9 May 2026 — LIKELY STALE DATA
Expected return: Available — he started the FC Cartagena friendly around 25 July. Treat as fit.

SunderlandAway

Unavailable / doubtful

Granit Xhaka — NOT INJURED - extended post-World Cup break after reaching the last 16 with Switzerland. Missed the entire North America tour.
Expected return: Rejoins on Wearside week commencing 3 August 2026, targeted at the Lens friendly on 8 August.
Chemsdine Talbi — NOT INJURED - extended post-World Cup break; Morocco lost the quarter-final 0-2 to France on 9 July 2026. Missed the North America tour.
Expected return: Rejoins week commencing 3 August 2026, targeted at the Lens friendly on 8 August. Sharpness risk for GW1.
Omar Alderete — NOT INJURED - extended post-World Cup break with Paraguay. Missed the North America tour.
Expected return: Rejoins week commencing 3 August 2026. Sharpness risk for GW1.
Thomas Meunier — NOT INJURED - extended post-World Cup break with Belgium. Has still not trained with his new club.
Expected return: Rejoins week commencing 3 August 2026. Very unlikely to start GW1 with effectively no pre-season.
Jocelin Ta Bi — NOT INJURED - United States visa application rejected and the appeal also failed. Le Bris, 29 July: 'We didn't solve the visa problem.'
Expected return: Missed the Leeds friendly and most likely Wrexham (2 August); rejoins the squad back in Sunderland week…

+3 more absences reported

Latest updates

13 Aug · Injury
Alderete and Mukiele back in training but expected on bench for Ipswich opener
Le Bris described Alderete's World Cup knee problem as "just about stiffness. It's not major" and said of the pair: "probably both of them should be on the bench for Ipswich, I think."…
13 Aug · Injury
Adingra pictured in protective boot; Le Bris says winger 'might be a bit longer'
Adingra hurt his ankle after coming on as a substitute in the pre-season win over Wrexham. Le Bris said on 8 August: "Simon might be a bit longer, so we are still monitoring his ankle and we…

Club news is gathered once a day from club statements and reporting, last on 13 Aug 2026. It is not a confirmed team sheet — squads are named about an hour before kick-off, after this page was built, so late fitness news may not appear above.

Predicted lineups — expected XI, not a confirmed team sheet

Ipswich TownHome4-2-3-1
Goalkeeper
GKKjell Scherpen
Defence
RBHarry Clarke (inverts into midfield)CBDara O'Shea (c)CBJacob GreavesLBLeif Davis
Midfield
CMCameron HumphreysCMMarcelino NúñezAMAnis Mehmeti
Attack
RWAbdul FatawuLWJack ClarkeSTEmersonn
Selection doubts
·LEFT-SIDE ATTACK IS SEVERELY CONGESTED — the single biggest FPL minutes risk at the club.
·CENTRE-BACK ALONGSIDE O'SHEA — Jacob Greaves vs Issa Diop, unresolved.

SunderlandAway4-3-3
Goalkeeper
GKRobin Roefs
Defence
RBNordi MukieleCBDan BallardCBOmar AldereteLBReinildo Mandava
Midfield
DMGranit XhakaCMNoah SadikiCMEnzo Le Fee
Attack
RWTrai HumeSTBrian BrobbeyLWChemsdine Talbi
Selection doubts
·PROJECTION, NOT A QUOTED BEAT-REPORTER XI.
·TRAI HUME IS THE BIGGEST MODELLING TRAP.

Our projected starting elevens from squad news as of 30 July 2026 — not team sheets. Clubs confirm their starting elevens around an hour before kick-off, after this page was built.

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Fantasy angle — top FPL picks in this fixture (2026/27 projections)

E.Le FéeSUN · MID · £6.0m3.5 pts

BallardSUN · DEF · £5.0m3.2 pts

RoefsSUN · GKP · £5.0m3.1 pts

All projected points →

More predictions for these teams

Ipswich Town fixtures & form →

Sunderland fixtures & form →

Ipswich vs Sunderland — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Ipswich and Sunderland — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Ipswich 40% · draw 29% · Sunderland 31%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

Ipswich predictions & form →Sunderland predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →

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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.