Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelAston Villa on top, with Nicolas Jackson our likeliest to test the keeper.
Ipswich Town v Aston Villa prediction
Aston Villa are favourites on our numbers: 47% to win, against 28% for Ipswich Town and 25% for a draw. Our predicted score is Ipswich Town 1–2 Aston Villa, the likeliest Aston Villa win score (9%). Ipswich Town are expected to score 1.3 goals and Aston Villa 1.7, 3.0 between them. Both teams scoring is 60% and three or more goals is 59%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Ipswich Town have won none, Aston Villa two, and three were drawn. When they last met, it finished Aston Villa 1–1 Ipswich Town, in Feb 2025. On shots, our forecast is 14.6 for Ipswich Town and 13.3 for Aston Villa, with 4.9 and 4.5 on target, and corners at 4.6 to 5.0.
Nicolas Jackson is the player we expect to shoot most: 2.9 shots and 1.3 on target for Aston Villa, if they start. For cards, Matty Cash (Aston Villa) has been booked about once a game in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here. On form, Ipswich Town have one win, two draws and three defeats from their last six games, and Aston Villa have two wins, two draws and two defeats. Bawler's pick for this game is Aston Villa or Draw, Aston Villa Over 9.5 Shots and Nicolas Jackson 1+ Shot on Target. Our model gives all three landing together a 45% chance, which makes the fair price 6/5 (2.20).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Ipswich Town · last 6
Aston Villa · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Aston Villa or draw is 72% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Premier League table →Common questions
Who will win Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa?
Bawler's model rates this match: Aston Villa are favoured (47% win probability vs 28% for Ipswich Town, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa?
Bawler's predicted score is Ipswich Town 1-2 Aston Villa: the most likely score if Aston Villa win, which is the likeliest result (47%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.3%. Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Ipswich Town 28%, the draw 25% and Aston Villa 47%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 60% chance. That is based on Ipswich Town expecting 1.30 goals and Aston Villa 1.74.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 59%.
When are the Ipswich Town v Aston Villa line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Ipswich Town v Aston Villa?
Aston Villa or Draw (72%), Aston Villa Over 9.5 Shots (79%), Nicolas Jackson 1+ Shot on Target (70%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 45% chance, a fair price of 6/5 (2.20). 18+, please gamble responsibly.