What we expect
In plain English
Iceland are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Bulgaria. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
Iceland to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Iceland vs Bulgaria?
Bawler's model rates this match: Iceland are favoured (72% win probability vs 11% for Bulgaria, 17% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Iceland vs Bulgaria?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Iceland 2-0 Bulgaria (9.3% probability). Expected total goals: 3.61.
How does Bawler predict Iceland vs Bulgaria?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Iceland 72%, the draw 17% and Bulgaria 11%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Iceland vs Bulgaria?
BTTS: Yes (58% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.63 and away expected goals 0.98.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Iceland vs Bulgaria?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.61. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).