How it finished
Iceland beat Bulgaria 3–0. Iceland had 10 shots (6 on target) to Bulgaria's 10 (3), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 3.0 to 1.1.
What we expected from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
What we said the chances were
First half — what we expected
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Head to head
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who won Iceland vs Bulgaria?
Iceland beat Bulgaria 3–0. Iceland had 10 shots (6 on target) to Bulgaria's 10 (3), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 3.0 to 1.1.
What was the final score in Iceland vs Bulgaria?
Iceland 3–0 Bulgaria, played on 03 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Iceland 74%, the draw 16% and Bulgaria 10%.
What were the stats in Iceland vs Bulgaria?
Full-time: Possession 51%–49%, Expected goals (xG) 3.0–1.1, Shots 10–10, Shots on target 6–3, Shots inside box 7–7, Big chances 5–3, Corners 9–1, Saves 3–3, Fouls 11–14, Offsides 1–1, Yellow cards 2–4.
Did both teams score in Iceland vs Bulgaria?
No. It finished 3–0, so Bulgaria failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 53% before kickoff.