What we expect
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one first-half goal: 73%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.
In plain English
FC Nordsjælland are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
FC Nordsjælland or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Heart of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjælland?
Bawler's model rates this match: FC Nordsjælland are favoured (46% win probability vs 29% for Heart of Midlothian, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Heart of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjælland?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Heart of Midlothian 1-1 FC Nordsjælland (11.4% probability). Expected total goals: 3.05.
How does Bawler predict Heart of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjælland?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Heart of Midlothian 29%, the draw 25% and FC Nordsjælland 46%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Heart of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjælland?
BTTS: Yes (60% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.32 and away expected goals 1.73.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Heart of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjælland?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.05. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).