How it finished
Northern Ireland beat Georgia 1–0. Bawler's model had Northern Ireland in front at 41% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 1 was scored. Georgia had 11 shots (5 on target) to Northern Ireland's 12 (5), with 62% of the ball against 38%. On expected goals it was 1.7 to 1.2, so Georgia created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected from each side before kickoff, next to how they had been doing.
Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them. Each card is drawn on one scale, so the two bars are directly comparable. “Above recent” means our forecast is higher than their average over the last six.
What we published
How likely we said the big moments were, before kickoff.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 71%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Georgia vs Northern Ireland?
Northern Ireland beat Georgia 1–0. Bawler's model had Northern Ireland in front at 41% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 1 was scored. Georgia had 11 shots (5 on target) to Northern Ireland's 12 (5), with 62% of the ball against 38%. On expected goals it was 1.7 to 1.2, so Georgia created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Georgia vs Northern Ireland?
Georgia 0–1 Northern Ireland, played on 25 Sept 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Georgia 33%, the draw 27% and Northern Ireland 41%.
What were the stats in Georgia vs Northern Ireland?
Full-time: Possession 62%–38%, Expected goals (xG) 1.7–1.2, Shots 11–12, Shots on target 5–5, Shots inside box 7–3, Big chances 3–2, Corners 9–1, Saves 4–4, Fouls 13–14, Offsides 0–3, Yellow cards 1–3.
Did both teams score in Georgia vs Northern Ireland?
No. It finished 0–1, so Georgia failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 57% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Georgia vs Northern Ireland right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Northern Ireland or draw 67%, it finished Northern Ireland won (41% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 57%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 77%, it finished Missed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 54%, it finished Missed.