Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelFinland on top: we expect them to avoid defeat and do most of the shooting.
Finland v San Marino prediction
Our model gives Finland a 95% chance of winning this UEFA Nations League game. A San Marino win is 1% and a draw 4%. Our predicted score is Finland 3–0 San Marino (16%), though no one exact score is likely on its own. We expect 4.0 goals in total: 3.8 for Finland and 0.2 for San Marino. Both teams scoring is only 21% and three or more goals is 77%.
On shots, our forecast is 23.2 for Finland and 4.4 for San Marino, with 11.2 and 1.3 on target, and corners at 8.7 to 1.6. So we expect Finland to do more of the shooting.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Finland have won five, San Marino none. When they last met, it finished San Marino 0–7 Finland, in Sept 2026. Bawler's pick for this game is Finland or Draw, Finland Over 17.5 Shots, Finland Over 7.5 Shots on Target and Finland Over 5.5 Corners. Our model gives all four landing together a 56% chance, which makes the fair price 4/5 (1.78).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Finland · last 6
San Marino · last 6
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Finland to win is 95% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who will win Finland vs San Marino?
Bawler's model rates this match: Finland are favoured (95% win probability vs 1% for San Marino, 4% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Finland vs San Marino?
Bawler's predicted score is Finland 3-0 San Marino: the most likely score if Finland win, which is the likeliest result (95%). Our model puts that exact score at 16.1%. Expected total goals: 4.0.
How does Bawler predict Finland vs San Marino?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Finland 95%, the draw 4% and San Marino 1%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Finland vs San Marino?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 21% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Finland expecting 3.79 goals and San Marino 0.24.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Finland vs San Marino?
Bawler's model expects 4.0 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 77%.
When are the Finland v San Marino line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Finland v San Marino?
Finland or Draw (99%), Finland Over 17.5 Shots (79%), Finland Over 7.5 Shots on Target (82%), Finland Over 5.5 Corners (79%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 56% chance, a fair price of 4/5 (1.78). 18+, please gamble responsibly.