Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelFC Groningen on top, with Thom van Bergen our likeliest to test the keeper.
FC Groningen v Willem II prediction
Our model makes FC Groningen clear favourites for this Eredivisie game, with a 69% chance of winning. Willem II are given 14%, and the draw 17%. If you want one score, our predicted score is FC Groningen 2–1 Willem II, at 9%. Our expected goals are 2.7 for FC Groningen and 1.2 for Willem II, 3.8 in all. Both sides are more likely than not to score (64%) and three or more goals is 73%.
In their last six games FC Groningen have one win, one draw and four defeats, while Willem II have one win, one draw and four defeats. FC Groningen lost their most recent match and Willem II drew theirs. We expect FC Groningen to have 23.9 shots (6.7 on target) and Willem II 9.9 (3.3 on target), and corners at 8.1 to 3.2. That points to FC Groningen doing more of the attacking.
Of their last five meetings on our records, FC Groningen have won three, Willem II none, and two were drawn. The last meeting ended Willem II 1–3 FC Groningen, in Feb 2025. Bawler's pick for this game is FC Groningen or Draw, FC Groningen Over 18.5 Shots and Thom van Bergen 1+ Shot on Target. Our model gives all three landing together a 54% chance, which makes the fair price 5/6 (1.85).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
FC Groningen · last 6
Willem II · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
FC Groningen to win is 69% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Eredivisie table →Common questions
Who will win FC Groningen vs Willem II?
Bawler's model rates this match: FC Groningen are favoured (69% win probability vs 14% for Willem II, 17% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for FC Groningen vs Willem II?
Bawler's predicted score is FC Groningen 2-1 Willem II: the most likely score if FC Groningen win, which is the likeliest result (69%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.9%. Expected total goals: 3.8.
How does Bawler predict FC Groningen vs Willem II?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives FC Groningen 69%, the draw 17% and Willem II 14%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in FC Groningen vs Willem II?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 64% chance. That is based on FC Groningen expecting 2.66 goals and Willem II 1.16.
Over or under 2.5 goals in FC Groningen vs Willem II?
Bawler's model expects 3.8 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 73%.
When are the FC Groningen v Willem II line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for FC Groningen v Willem II?
FC Groningen or Draw (86%), FC Groningen Over 18.5 Shots (81%), Thom van Bergen 1+ Shot on Target (68%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 54% chance, a fair price of 5/6 (1.85). 18+, please gamble responsibly.