Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelAn open game: both sides to score, with Thom van Bergen and Maxence Rivera both getting shots away.
FC Groningen v Heerenveen prediction
Our model gives FC Groningen 42%, the draw 24% and Heerenveen 35%, so FC Groningen start as favourites. If you want one score, our predicted score is FC Groningen 2–1 Heerenveen, the most likely FC Groningen win (8%). FC Groningen are expected to score 1.8 goals and Heerenveen 1.6, 3.4 between them. Both teams scoring is 67% and three or more goals is 67%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, FC Groningen have won three, Heerenveen two. When they last met, it finished SC Heerenveen 0–2 FC Groningen, in Jan 2026. On shots, our forecast is 18.2 for FC Groningen and 13.4 for Heerenveen, with 5.3 and 4.8 on target, and corners at 6.4 to 4.9. So we expect FC Groningen to do more of the shooting.
In their last six games FC Groningen have two wins, one draw and three defeats, while Heerenveen have five wins, no draws and one defeat. FC Groningen lost their most recent match and Heerenveen won theirs. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Both Teams to Score, Over 26.5 Total Shots, Thom van Bergen 1+ Shot and Maxence Rivera 1+ Shot. The chance all four land is 55% on our numbers, so the fair price is 4/5, or 1.81.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
FC Groningen · last 6
Heerenveen · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
FC Groningen or draw is 65% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27 and 2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Eredivisie table →Common questions
Who will win FC Groningen vs Heerenveen?
Bawler's model rates this match: FC Groningen are favoured (42% win probability vs 35% for Heerenveen, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for FC Groningen vs Heerenveen?
Bawler's predicted score is FC Groningen 2-1 Heerenveen: the most likely score if FC Groningen win, which is the likeliest result (42%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.4%. Expected total goals: 3.4.
How does Bawler predict FC Groningen vs Heerenveen?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives FC Groningen 42%, the draw 24% and Heerenveen 35%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in FC Groningen vs Heerenveen?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 67% chance. That is based on FC Groningen expecting 1.80 goals and Heerenveen 1.63.
Over or under 2.5 goals in FC Groningen vs Heerenveen?
Bawler's model expects 3.4 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 67%.
When are the FC Groningen v Heerenveen line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for FC Groningen v Heerenveen?
Both Teams to Score (67%), Over 26.5 Total Shots (79%), Thom van Bergen 1+ Shot (93%), Maxence Rivera 1+ Shot (89%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 55% chance, a fair price of 4/5 (1.81). 18+, please gamble responsibly.