Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelEcuador on top: we expect them to avoid defeat and do most of the shooting.
Ecuador v Bolivia prediction
Our model makes Ecuador clear favourites for this International friendlies game, with an 83% chance of winning. Bolivia are given 3%, and the draw 14%. Our predicted score is Ecuador 2–0 Bolivia (21%), though no one exact score is likely on its own. We expect 2.5 goals in total: 2.3 for Ecuador and 0.2 for Bolivia. There is a 20% chance both sides score and three or more goals is 46%.
Ecuador have one win, one draw and four defeats from their last six games, and lost the most recent. Of their last five meetings on our records, Ecuador have won five, Bolivia none. The last meeting ended Ecuador 4–0 Bolivia, in Nov 2024.
We expect Ecuador to have 17.4 shots (6.7 on target) and Bolivia 8.1 (2.0 on target), and corners at 7.2 to 2.5. That points to Ecuador doing more of the attacking. Bawler's pick combines Ecuador or Draw, Ecuador Over 12.5 Shots, Ecuador Over 3.5 Shots on Target and Ecuador Over 4.5 Corners. We make the chance of all four coming in 55%, a fair price of 4/5 (1.80).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Ecuador to win is 83% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Head to head
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who will win Ecuador vs Bolivia?
Bawler's model rates this match: Ecuador are favoured (83% win probability vs 3% for Bolivia, 14% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Ecuador vs Bolivia?
Bawler's predicted score is Ecuador 2-0 Bolivia: the most likely score if Ecuador win, which is the likeliest result (83%). Our model puts that exact score at 20.8%. Expected total goals: 2.5.
How does Bawler predict Ecuador vs Bolivia?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Ecuador 83%, the draw 14% and Bolivia 3%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Ecuador vs Bolivia?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 20% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Ecuador expecting 2.27 goals and Bolivia 0.25.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Ecuador vs Bolivia?
Bawler's model expects 2.5 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 46%.
When are the Ecuador v Bolivia line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Ecuador v Bolivia?
Ecuador or Draw (97%), Ecuador Over 12.5 Shots (78%), Ecuador Over 3.5 Shots on Target (86%), Ecuador Over 4.5 Corners (77%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 55% chance, a fair price of 4/5 (1.80). 18+, please gamble responsibly.