Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelBarcelona on top, with Raphinha our likeliest to test the keeper.
Deportivo v Barcelona prediction
Our model gives Barcelona a 67% chance of winning this LaLiga game. A Deportivo win is 14% and a draw 19%. If you want one score, our predicted score is Deportivo 0–2 Barcelona, at 10%. We expect 3.3 goals in total: 1.0 for Deportivo and 2.3 for Barcelona. Both sides are more likely than not to score (57%) and three or more goals is 65%.
In their last six games Deportivo have two wins, two draws and two defeats, while Barcelona have four wins, no draws and two defeats. Deportivo drew their most recent match and Barcelona won theirs. Lamine Yamal (Barcelona) is the player we expect to shoot most, with 3.9 shots if they start. Raphinha (Barcelona) leads for shots on target, at 1.3. Marc Bernal of Barcelona is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2025/26.
We expect Deportivo to have 10.3 shots (4.0 on target) and Barcelona 18.6 (6.5 on target), and corners at 3.8 to 6.0. That points to Barcelona doing more of the attacking. Of their last five meetings on our records, Deportivo have won one, Barcelona four. The last meeting ended Deportivo A Coruña 2–4 Barcelona, in Apr 2018. Bawler's pick combines Barcelona or Draw, Barcelona Over 14.5 Shots and Raphinha 1+ Shot on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 52%, a fair price of 10/11 (1.93).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Deportivo · last 6
Barcelona · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Barcelona to win is 67% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
LaLiga table →Common questions
Who will win Deportivo vs Barcelona?
Bawler's model rates this match: Barcelona are favoured (67% win probability vs 14% for Deportivo, 19% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo vs Barcelona?
Bawler's predicted score is Deportivo 0-2 Barcelona: the most likely score if Barcelona win, which is the likeliest result (67%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.7%. Expected total goals: 3.3.
How does Bawler predict Deportivo vs Barcelona?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Deportivo 14%, the draw 19% and Barcelona 67%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Deportivo vs Barcelona?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 57% chance. That is based on Deportivo expecting 0.99 goals and Barcelona 2.34.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Deportivo vs Barcelona?
Bawler's model expects 3.3 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 65%.
When are the Deportivo v Barcelona line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Deportivo v Barcelona?
Barcelona or Draw (86%), Barcelona Over 14.5 Shots (76%), Raphinha 1+ Shot on Target (69%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 52% chance, a fair price of 10/11 (1.93). 18+, please gamble responsibly.