FT · Europe: Champions League · Tuesday, 03 November 2026
Barcelona 3–0 Aston VillaMatch recap · Tuesday, 03 November 2026
How Bawler's pick did
Bawler's pickWon
Barcelona or Draw✓
Barcelona Over 15.5 Shots✓
Raphinha 1+ Shot on Target✓
Logged before kickoff, settled from the final stats. Bawler's pick record →
Pre-match probability vs result
Barcelona win
57%
Result
Draw
20%
Aston Villa win
22%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 1.4
Total 3.8
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (−0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.