Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelComo on top: Anastasios Douvikas to test the keeper, and Paul Mendy kept busy stopping them.
Como v Cagliari prediction
Our model makes Como clear favourites for this Serie A game, with a 71% chance of winning. Cagliari are given 10%, and the draw 18%. If you want one score, our predicted score is Como 2–0 Cagliari, at 12%. Como are expected to score 2.3 goals and Cagliari 0.8, 3.1 between them. Both teams scoring is only 49% and three or more goals is 60%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Como have won three, Cagliari none, and two were drawn. When they last met, it finished Cagliari 1–2 Como, in Mar 2026. On shots, our forecast is 21.1 for Como and 8.1 for Cagliari, with 6.4 and 2.9 on target, and corners at 6.3 to 2.2. So we expect Como to do more of the shooting.
Of the players, Nico Paz of Como tops our shots forecast at 4.2, if they start. Anastasios Douvikas (Como) leads for shots on target, at 1.2. For cards, Jayden Addai (Como) has been booked once every 2 games in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here. In their last six games Como have six wins, no draws and no defeats, while Cagliari have one win, one draw and four defeats. Both won their most recent match. Bawler's pick for this game is Como or Draw, Paul Mendy 1+ Foul Committed and Anastasios Douvikas 1+ Shot on Target. Our model gives all three landing together a 50% chance, which makes the fair price Evens (2.01).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Como · last 6
Cagliari · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Como to win is 71% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Serie A table →Common questions
Who will win Como vs Cagliari?
Bawler's model rates this match: Como are favoured (71% win probability vs 10% for Cagliari, 18% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Como vs Cagliari?
Bawler's predicted score is Como 2-0 Cagliari: the most likely score if Como win, which is the likeliest result (71%). Our model puts that exact score at 12.1%. Expected total goals: 3.1.
How does Bawler predict Como vs Cagliari?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Como 71%, the draw 18% and Cagliari 10%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Como vs Cagliari?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Como expecting 2.31 goals and Cagliari 0.78.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Como vs Cagliari?
Bawler's model expects 3.1 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 60%.
When are the Como v Cagliari line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Como v Cagliari?
Como or Draw (90%), Paul Mendy 1+ Foul Committed (77%), Anastasios Douvikas 1+ Shot on Target (65%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 50% chance, a fair price of Evens (2.01). 18+, please gamble responsibly.