What we expect
In plain English
Colombia are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Paraguay. The model sees around two goals in it.
What would change the call
Colombia to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Colombia vs Paraguay?
Bawler's model rates this match: Colombia are favoured (64% win probability vs 12% for Paraguay, 24% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Colombia vs Paraguay?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Colombia 1-0 Paraguay (16.0% probability). Expected total goals: 2.38.
How does Bawler predict Colombia vs Paraguay?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Colombia 64%, the draw 24% and Paraguay 12%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Colombia vs Paraguay?
BTTS: No (61% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 1.75 and away expected goals 0.63.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Colombia vs Paraguay?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.38. The lean is Under 2.5 (likely a tighter affair).