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Japan vs Paraguay prediction — International friendlies · Tue 17 Nov · 13:10 UK

International friendlies · Tue 17 Nov · 13:10 UK
VersusParaguayParaguay
56Japan win27Draw17Paraguay win
The call
83%
Japan or draw
Likeliest score
1–0
15% — the single most likely result
Expected goals
1.5v0.7
2.3 in total
Both teams score
41%
Leans no
3+ goals
40%
Unlikely

What we expect from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

JapanJapanParaguayParaguay
1.5Goals0.7
usually 1.5usually 0.8
11.8Shots8.9
usually 9.0usually 6.7
4.0On target3.3
usually 3.3usually 1.7
4.3Corners3.1
usually 2.7usually 1.5
JapanJapanParaguayParaguay
0.7Goals0.3
5.4Shots4.1
usually 4.3usually 2.3
1.8On target1.5
usually 1.5usually 0.7
2.0Corners1.5
usually 1.2usually 0.3
JapanJapanParaguayParaguay
0.9Goals0.4
6.4Shots4.8
2.2On target1.8
2.3Corners1.6

More chances

3 goals or fewer80%
Japan to score79%
2 or more goals67%
Goal before half-time64%

Japan · last 6

Wv New Zealand2–110/05
Dv Ecuador0–010/01
Wv Venezuela2–112 shots
Wv Uruguay3–18 shots
Lv Brazil1–25 shots
Dv Sweden1–18 shots

Paraguay · last 6

Wv Colombia1–05 shots
Wv Bolivia2–009/27
Lv France0–15 shots
Dv Germany1–17 shots
Dv Australia0–07 shots
Wv Turkiye1–07 shots

Head to head

Oct 2025Japan 2–2 Paraguay
Jun 2022Japan 4–1 Paraguay
Sept 2019Japan 2–0 Paraguay
Jun 2018Paraguay 2–4 Japan
Sept 2010Japan 1–0 Paraguay

First half — what we expect

Japan
50%
to score before half-time
Paraguay
28%
to score before half-time

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.

JapanJapanParaguayParaguay
72%4+ shots53%
43%6+ shots25%
79%1+ shots on target73%
27%3+ shots on target20%
82%1+ corners71%
33%3+ corners20%

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

What would change the call

Japan or draw is 83% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:

Japan lead 1–0 at half-time98%
Paraguay lead 1–0 at half-time43%
Goalless at half-time84%

Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.

Build a combination on this match →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Japan form →Paraguay form →

Common questions

Who will win Japan vs Paraguay?

Bawler's model rates this match: Japan are favoured (56% win probability vs 17% for Paraguay, 27% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Japan vs Paraguay?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Japan 1-0 Paraguay (15.4% probability). Expected total goals: 2.3.

How does Bawler predict Japan vs Paraguay?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Japan 56%, the draw 27% and Paraguay 17%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Japan vs Paraguay?

Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 41% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Japan expecting 1.55 goals and Paraguay 0.75.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Japan vs Paraguay?

Bawler's model expects 2.3 goals in total. It leans towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is only 40%.