What we expect
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?
Bawler's model rates this match: Bulgaria are favoured (40% win probability vs 34% for Luxembourg, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Bulgaria 1-1 Luxembourg (12.1% probability). Expected total goals: 2.93.
How does Bawler predict Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Bulgaria 40%, the draw 26% and Luxembourg 34%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?
BTTS: Yes (59% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.52 and away expected goals 1.41.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.93. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).