FT · England: EFL Cup · Thursday, 29 October 2026
Everton 3–1 Newcastle UnitedMatch recap · Thursday, 29 October 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Everton win
39%
Result
Draw
25%
Newcastle United win
35%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.5
Total 3.1
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 2.1
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.