Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelAtalanta on top, with Nikola Krstović our likeliest to test the keeper.
Borac Banja Luka v Atalanta prediction
Our model gives Atalanta a 72% chance of winning this Conference League game. A Borac Banja Luka win is 11% and a draw 17%. If you want one score, our predicted score is Borac Banja Luka 0–2 Atalanta, at 10%. We expect 3.4 goals in total: 0.9 for Borac Banja Luka and 2.5 for Atalanta. Both teams scoring is 55% and three or more goals is 67%.
Nikola Krstović is the player we expect to shoot most: 3.2 shots and 1.2 on target for Atalanta, if they start. For cards, Eljif Elmas (Atalanta) has been booked once every 3 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here. Borac Banja Luka come in with five wins, no draws and one defeat in their last six. Atalanta have one win, three draws and two defeats over the same run.
On shots, our forecast is 13.7 for Borac Banja Luka and 12.1 for Atalanta, with 7.6 and 2.7 on target, and corners at 4.6 to 4.3. Bawler's pick combines Atalanta or Draw, Atalanta Over 8.5 Shots and Nikola Krstović 1+ Shot on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 53%, a fair price of 10/11 (1.88).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Borac Banja Luka · last 6
Atalanta · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Atalanta to win is 72% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Serie A table →Common questions
Who will win Borac Banja Luka vs Atalanta?
Bawler's model rates this match: Atalanta are favoured (72% win probability vs 11% for Borac Banja Luka, 17% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Borac Banja Luka vs Atalanta?
Bawler's predicted score is Borac Banja Luka 0-2 Atalanta: the most likely score if Atalanta win, which is the likeliest result (72%). Our model puts that exact score at 10.2%. Expected total goals: 3.4.
How does Bawler predict Borac Banja Luka vs Atalanta?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Borac Banja Luka 11%, the draw 17% and Atalanta 72%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Borac Banja Luka vs Atalanta?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 55% chance. That is based on Borac Banja Luka expecting 0.91 goals and Atalanta 2.52.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Borac Banja Luka vs Atalanta?
Bawler's model expects 3.4 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 67%.
When are the Borac Banja Luka v Atalanta line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Borac Banja Luka v Atalanta?
Atalanta or Draw (89%), Atalanta Over 8.5 Shots (78%), Nikola Krstović 1+ Shot on Target (67%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 53% chance, a fair price of 10/11 (1.88). 18+, please gamble responsibly.