Lincoln City beat Bolton Wanderers 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Bolton Wanderers at 36% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Lincoln City 36%. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 1 was scored. Bolton Wanderers had 21 shots (6 on target) to Lincoln City's 8 (2), with 69% of the ball against 31%. On expected goals it was 1.6 to 1.1, so Bolton Wanderers created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
Chance of at least one first-half goal: 70%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.
Lincoln City beat Bolton Wanderers 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Bolton Wanderers at 36% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Lincoln City 36%. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 1 was scored. Bolton Wanderers had 21 shots (6 on target) to Lincoln City's 8 (2), with 69% of the ball against 31%. On expected goals it was 1.6 to 1.1, so Bolton Wanderers created the better chances and still lost the game.
Bolton Wanderers 0–1 Lincoln City, played on 29 Aug 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Bolton Wanderers 36%, the draw 27% and Lincoln City 36%.
Full-time: Possession 69%–31%, Expected goals (xG) 1.6–1.1, Shots 21–8, Shots on target 6–2, Shots inside box 13–5, Big chances 2–1, Corners 14–2, Saves 1–7, Fouls 6–15, Offsides 0–4, Yellow cards 0–3.
No. It finished 0–1, so Bolton Wanderers failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said Bolton Wanderers 36%, it finished Lincoln City (36% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished No; Model call — we said Over 1.5 Goals 76%, it finished Missed; Second call — we said Over 2.5 Goals 52%, it finished Missed.