FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Tuesday, 01 September 2026
Lincoln City 0–0 Blackburn RoversMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 01 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Lincoln City at 43%, draw at 28%, Blackburn Rovers at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Lincoln City to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
43%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
Rovers win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.45 – 1.17
Total 2.62
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost