FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Bolton Wanderers 0–1 Lincoln CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Bolton Wanderers at 36%, draw at 27%, Lincoln City at 36%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Bolton Wanderers to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Wanderers win
36%
Draw
27%
City win
36%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.38 – 1.38
Total 2.75
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Lincoln City's title charge at 85 points with four games remaining creates defensive urgency against Bolton's attacking threat, yet the xG gap of just 0.08 suggests an open contest where Over 1.5 Goals projects at 77%."