Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelBirmingham City on top: we expect them to avoid defeat and do most of the shooting.
Birmingham City v Bolton Wanderers prediction
Our model gives Birmingham City a 61% chance of winning this Championship game. A Bolton Wanderers win is 17% and a draw 21%. Our predicted score is Birmingham City 2–1 Bolton Wanderers, at 10%. Birmingham City are expected to score 2.1 goals and Bolton Wanderers 1.1, 3.2 between them. Both sides are more likely than not to score (58%) and three or more goals is 62%.
On form, Birmingham City have five wins, no draws and one defeat from their last six games, and Bolton Wanderers have two wins, one draw and three defeats. We expect Birmingham City to have 18.0 shots (5.9 on target) and Bolton Wanderers 10.0 (2.9 on target), and corners at 6.9 to 3.4. That points to Birmingham City doing more of the attacking.
Of the players, Jay Stansfield (Birmingham City) tops both our lists, with 2.9 shots and 0.8 on target expected if they start. Bright Osayi-Samuel of Birmingham City is the most booked player in either squad, once every 3 games in 2026/27. Of their last five meetings on our records, Birmingham City have won two, Bolton Wanderers three. The last meeting ended Bolton Wanderers 3–1 Birmingham City, in Mar 2025. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Birmingham City or Draw, Birmingham City Over 13.5 Shots, Birmingham City Over 3.5 Shots on Target and Birmingham City Over 3.5 Corners. The chance all four land is 50% on our numbers, so the fair price is Evens, or 2.00.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Birmingham City · last 6
Bolton Wanderers · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Birmingham City to win is 61% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Championship table →Common questions
Who will win Birmingham City vs Bolton Wanderers?
Bawler's model rates this match: Birmingham City are favoured (61% win probability vs 17% for Bolton Wanderers, 21% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Birmingham City vs Bolton Wanderers?
Bawler's predicted score is Birmingham City 2-1 Bolton Wanderers: the most likely score if Birmingham City win, which is the likeliest result (61%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.8%. Expected total goals: 3.2.
How does Bawler predict Birmingham City vs Bolton Wanderers?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Birmingham City 61%, the draw 21% and Bolton Wanderers 17%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Birmingham City vs Bolton Wanderers?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 58% chance. That is based on Birmingham City expecting 2.14 goals and Bolton Wanderers 1.07.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Birmingham City vs Bolton Wanderers?
Bawler's model expects 3.2 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 62%.
When are the Birmingham City v Bolton Wanderers line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Birmingham City v Bolton Wanderers?
Birmingham City or Draw (83%), Birmingham City Over 13.5 Shots (80%), Birmingham City Over 3.5 Shots on Target (81%), Birmingham City Over 3.5 Corners (85%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 50% chance, a fair price of Evens (2.00). 18+, please gamble responsibly.