Benfica vs AGF prediction — Europa League - Qualification · Thu 20 Aug · 20:00 UK

Europa League - Qualification · Thu 20 Aug · 20:00 UK
Benfica 68Draw 20AGF 12
Our call before kickoff
68%
Benfica to win
Landed
3.0
Goals expected
Full time
Final 3–1
Both teams score (before kick-off)
49%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
57%

How it finished

Benfica beat AGF 3–1. Bawler's model had Benfica in front at 68% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.0 goals; the match produced 4. Benfica had 32 shots (13 on target) to AGF's 3 (1), with 71% of the ball against 29%.

BenficaFull-time statsAGF
71%Possession29%
32Shots3
13Shots on target1
11Corners1
0Saves9
10Fouls17
1Offsides0
2Yellow cards1
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callBenfica to win 68%Benfica won (68% called)
Total goals3.04
Both teams to score49%Yes
Graded pickBenfica or draw 88%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

BenficaAGF
2.2
Goals+1.3
0.8

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first.

MarketProbability
Benfica to score88%
Over 1.5 goals80%
Under 3.5 goals65%

No first-half forecast for this fixture.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+1.3 / match
AGF in their league tableBottom quarter
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Benfica vs AGF?

Benfica beat AGF 3–1. Bawler's model had Benfica in front at 68% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.0 goals; the match produced 4. Benfica had 32 shots (13 on target) to AGF's 3 (1), with 71% of the ball against 29%.

What was the final score in Benfica vs AGF?

Benfica 3–1 AGF, played on 20 Aug 2026 in the EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification. Bawler's model had gone into it with Benfica 68%, the draw 20% and AGF 12%.

What were the stats in Benfica vs AGF?

Full-time: Possession 71%–29%, Shots 32–3, Shots on target 13–1, Corners 11–1, Saves 0–9, Fouls 10–17, Offsides 1–0, Yellow cards 2–1.

Did both teams score in Benfica vs AGF?

Yes — both Benfica and AGF scored, finishing 3–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 49% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Benfica vs AGF right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Benfica to win 68%, it finished Benfica won (68% called); Total goals — we said 3.0, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 49%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Benfica or draw 88%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

Liga Portugal table →
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