Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano prediction — LaLiga · Mon 31 Aug · 20:30 UK

LaLiga · Mon 31 Aug · 20:30 UK
Barcelona 65Draw 20Rayo Vallecano 15
The call
65%
Barcelona to win
3.2
Goals expected
Full time
Final 5–2

How it finished

Barcelona beat Rayo Vallecano 5–2. Bawler's model had Barcelona in front at 65% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.2 goals; the match produced 7. Barcelona had 26 shots (9 on target) to Rayo Vallecano's 11 (5), with 69% of the ball against 31%. Expected goals finished 2.8 to 1.1.

BarcelonaFull-time statsRayo…
69%Possession31%
2.8Expected goals (xG)1.1
26Shots11
9Shots on target5
17Shots inside box7
4Big chances0
9Corners5
3Saves5
4Fouls11
3Offsides4
0Yellow cards1
What we publishedBeforeAfter
ResultBarcelona 65%Barcelona (65% called)
Total goals3.27
Both teams to score57%Yes
Model callHome Win 65%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

MarketProbability
Barcelona to score89%
Over 1.5 goals83%
Rayo Vallecano to score63%
Over 2.5 goals63%

First half — what we expected

BarcelonaBefore half-timeRayo Vallecano
62%Chance to score44%
7.3Expected shots3.9
2.7Expected shots on target1.5
3.1Expected corners2.0
71%Chance of 6+ shots21%
43%Chance of 8+ shots6%
65%Chance of 2+ shots on target46%
29%Chance of 4+ shots on target7%
79%Chance of 2+ corners56%
37%Chance of 4+ corners15%

Chance of at least one first-half goal: 79%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)+1.2 / match
Head-to-head, last 5BAR 4 · D 1 · RAY 0
Opponent strength indexLower mid

Head to head

Mar 2026Barcelona 1–0 Rayo Vallecano
Aug 2025Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Barcelona
Feb 2025Barcelona 1–0 Rayo Vallecano
Aug 2024Rayo Vallecano 1–2 Barcelona
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano?

Barcelona beat Rayo Vallecano 5–2. Bawler's model had Barcelona in front at 65% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.2 goals; the match produced 7. Barcelona had 26 shots (9 on target) to Rayo Vallecano's 11 (5), with 69% of the ball against 31%. Expected goals finished 2.8 to 1.1.

What was the final score in Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano?

Barcelona 5–2 Rayo Vallecano, played on 31 Aug 2026 in the SPAIN: LaLiga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Barcelona 65%, the draw 20% and Rayo Vallecano 15%.

What were the stats in Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano?

Full-time: Possession 69%–31%, Expected goals (xG) 2.8–1.1, Shots 26–11, Shots on target 9–5, Shots inside box 17–7, Big chances 4–0, Corners 9–5, Saves 3–5, Fouls 4–11, Offsides 3–4, Yellow cards 0–1.

Did both teams score in Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano?

Yes — both Barcelona and Rayo Vallecano scored, finishing 5–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 57% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said Barcelona 65%, it finished Barcelona (65% called); Total goals — we said 3.2, it finished 7; Both teams to score — we said 57%, it finished Yes; Model call — we said Home Win 65%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

LaLiga table →
All fixtures & results →Barcelona form →Rayo Vallecano form →