FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Elche 0–5 BarcelonaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Barcelona or draw at 80%. Bawler had Elche at 20%, the draw at 23% and Barcelona at 57%. The match finished 0–5.
Pre-match probability vs result
Elche win
20%
Draw
23%
Barcelona win
57%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 2.0
Total 3.2
Actual
0 – 5
Total 5 (+1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 4.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.