Match prediction·NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie·Saturday 08 Aug, 19:00 UTC

AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
54.6% home27.9% draw17.6% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
AZ AlkmaarstepADO Den Haag
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

AZ Alkmaar average 6.6 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
76%
Both teams to score
53%
ADO Den Haag or draw
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

AZ Alkmaar fixtures & form →ADO Den Haag fixtures & form →

AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between AZ Alkmaar and ADO Den Haag — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: AZ Alkmaar 55% · draw 28% · ADO Den Haag 18%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

AZ Alkmaar predictions & form →ADO Den Haag predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
⚡ Full-time recap available
AZ Alkmaar 2–0 ADO Den Haag
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.