FT · NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Feyenoord Rotterdam 2–2 ADO Den HaagMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Feyenoord Rotterdam at 79%, draw at 14%, ADO Den Haag at 7%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Feyenoord Rotterdam to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rotterdam win
79%
Draw
14%
Actual ✓
Haag win
7%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.88 – 0.81
Total 3.68
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 79%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 50%
✓ Won