What we expect
In plain English
Austria should win this one. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Israel. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
Austria to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Austria vs Israel?
Bawler's model rates this match: Austria are favoured (85% win probability vs 5% for Israel, 11% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Austria vs Israel?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Austria 3-0 Israel (11.0% probability). Expected total goals: 3.90.
How does Bawler predict Austria vs Israel?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Austria 85%, the draw 11% and Israel 5%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Austria vs Israel?
BTTS: No (52% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 3.19 and away expected goals 0.70.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Austria vs Israel?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.90. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).