What we expect
Our forecast for this match. The tick on each bar is that side’s average over their last six.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
How to read this
The small bars under each number are that side’s most recent matches (up to six), home and away, against opponents of mixed strength, oldest on the left; the dashed line is the number we expect. Our forecast is for this opponent at this ground, so a favourite’s recent numbers often sit below it and an underdog’s above it.
Recent averages · last 6 matches
What each side has actually done lately, home and away — a record, not a forecast.
Our numbers, most likely first
Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
In plain English
Arouca are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have won four of the last five between them. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Arouca or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Arouca · last 6
C.D. Nacional · last 6
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 72%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Player forecasts
How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.
Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.
These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Arouca vs C.D. Nacional?
Bawler's model rates this match: Arouca are favoured (47% win probability vs 28% for C.D. Nacional, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Arouca vs C.D. Nacional?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Arouca 1-1 C.D. Nacional (12.0% probability). Expected total goals: 2.9.
How does Bawler predict Arouca vs C.D. Nacional?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Arouca 47%, the draw 26% and C.D. Nacional 28%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs C.D. Nacional?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 58% chance. That is based on Arouca expecting 1.66 goals and C.D. Nacional 1.24.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Arouca vs C.D. Nacional?
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 55%.