Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelToo close to call the result, so we back the game to be busy: shots, corners and efforts on target.
Maritimo v C.D. Nacional prediction
Our model only just leans towards C.D. Nacional here: 37% to win, with Maritimo on 36% and the draw on 27%. Our predicted score is Maritimo 0–1 C.D. Nacional: the most likely score if C.D. Nacional win, at 9%. Our expected goals are 1.3 for Maritimo and 1.4 for C.D. Nacional, 2.7 in all. Both teams scoring is 55% and three or more goals is 50%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Maritimo have won four, C.D. Nacional none, and one was drawn. When they last met, it finished Marítimo 3–1 Nacional, in Jan 2024. On shots, our forecast is 14.0 for Maritimo and 11.4 for C.D. Nacional, with 4.7 and 3.7 on target, and corners at 4.8 to 4.4.
Of the players, Martín Tejón of Maritimo tops our shots forecast at 2.7, if they start. Adrián Butzke (Maritimo) leads for shots on target, at 0.8. For cards, Raphael Guzzo (Maritimo) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here. In their last six games Maritimo have one win, one draw and four defeats, while C.D. Nacional have two wins, no draws and four defeats. Maritimo lost their most recent match and C.D. Nacional won theirs. Bawler's pick combines Over 20.5 Total Shots, Over 6.5 Total Corners and Over 5.5 Total Shots on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 61%, a fair price of 4/6 (1.64).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Maritimo · last 6
C.D. Nacional · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
C.D. Nacional or draw is 64% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27 and 2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Liga Portugal table →Common questions
Who will win Maritimo vs C.D. Nacional?
Bawler's model rates this match: C.D. Nacional are favoured (37% win probability vs 36% for Maritimo, 27% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Maritimo vs C.D. Nacional?
Bawler's predicted score is Maritimo 0-1 C.D. Nacional: the most likely score if C.D. Nacional win, which is the likeliest result (37%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.0%. Expected total goals: 2.7.
How does Bawler predict Maritimo vs C.D. Nacional?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Maritimo 36%, the draw 27% and C.D. Nacional 37%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs C.D. Nacional?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 55% chance. That is based on Maritimo expecting 1.33 goals and C.D. Nacional 1.36.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Maritimo vs C.D. Nacional?
Bawler's model expects 2.7 goals in total. Three or more goals is a coin flip: over 2.5 goals is 50%.
When are the Maritimo v C.D. Nacional line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Maritimo v C.D. Nacional?
Over 20.5 Total Shots (80%), Over 6.5 Total Corners (78%), Over 5.5 Total Shots on Target (82%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 61% chance, a fair price of 4/6 (1.64). 18+, please gamble responsibly.