FT · World: International Friendly · Tuesday, 06 October 2026

India 1–6 UruguayMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 06 October 2026

India
1–6
Uruguay win
Uruguay

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Uruguay to win at 79%. Bawler had India at 5%, the draw at 16% and Uruguay at 79%. The match finished 1–6.

Pre-match probability vs result

India win
5%
Draw
16%
Uruguay win
79%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
0.4 – 2.3
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 6
Total 7 (+4.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 4.2
From the match itself

The match produced 4.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Uruguay to win
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 29%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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