FT · World: International Friendly · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Argentina 7–0 Burkina FasoMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Argentina
7–0
Argentina win
Burkina Faso

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Argentina to win at 89%. Bawler had Argentina at 89%, the draw at 9% and Burkina Faso at 2%. The match finished 7–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Argentina win
89%
Result
Draw
9%
Burkina Faso win
2%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
3.1 – 0.4
Total 3.5
Actual
7 – 0
Total 7 (+3.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
4.3 – 0.1
From the match itself

The match produced 3.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Argentina to win
Pre-match: 89%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Argentina's home advantage and Messi's creative output (22% of team xG) overwhelm Burkina Faso's 0.39 expected goals, making an Argentina win the 88% forecast."

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