Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelArgentina on top: we expect them to avoid defeat and do most of the shooting.
Argentina v Costa Rica prediction
Argentina go into this International friendlies match as strong favourites on our numbers: 95% to win, against 1% for Costa Rica and 4% for a draw. Our predicted score is Argentina 3–0 Costa Rica (16%), though no one exact score is likely on its own. Argentina are expected to score 3.8 goals and Costa Rica 0.2, 4.0 between them. There is a 20% chance both sides score and three or more goals is 76%.
We expect Argentina to have 18.7 shots (7.5 on target) and Costa Rica 5.2 (1.6 on target), and corners at 7.2 to 1.6. That points to Argentina doing more of the attacking. Of their last three meetings on our records, Argentina have won two, Costa Rica none, and one was drawn. The last meeting ended Argentina 3–1 Costa Rica, in Mar 2024.
Argentina have three wins, three draws and no defeats from their last six games, and drew the most recent. Bawler's pick for this game is Argentina or Draw, Argentina Over 13.5 Shots, Argentina Over 4.5 Shots on Target and Argentina Over 4.5 Corners. Our model gives all four landing together a 55% chance, which makes the fair price 5/6 (1.82).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Argentina to win is 95% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Head to head
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who will win Argentina vs Costa Rica?
Bawler's model rates this match: Argentina are favoured (95% win probability vs 1% for Costa Rica, 4% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Argentina vs Costa Rica?
Bawler's predicted score is Argentina 3-0 Costa Rica: the most likely score if Argentina win, which is the likeliest result (95%). Our model puts that exact score at 16.4%. Expected total goals: 4.0.
How does Bawler predict Argentina vs Costa Rica?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Argentina 95%, the draw 4% and Costa Rica 1%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Argentina vs Costa Rica?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 20% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Argentina expecting 3.77 goals and Costa Rica 0.23.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Argentina vs Costa Rica?
Bawler's model expects 4.0 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 76%.
When are the Argentina v Costa Rica line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Argentina v Costa Rica?
Argentina or Draw (99%), Argentina Over 13.5 Shots (79%), Argentina Over 4.5 Shots on Target (82%), Argentina Over 4.5 Corners (77%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 55% chance, a fair price of 5/6 (1.82). 18+, please gamble responsibly.