FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Friday, 23 October 2026

Al Ittihad 2–0 Al DiriyahMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 23 October 2026

Al Ittihad
2–0
Al Ittihad win
Al Diriyah

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Ittihad or draw at 69%. Bawler had Al Ittihad at 43%, the draw at 26% and Al Diriyah at 31%. The match finished 2–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Ittihad win
43%
Result
Draw
26%
Al Diriyah win
31%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.6 – 1.3
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.7 – 0.9
From the match itself

The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 78% confidence because Al Ittihad's 1.57 expected goals combined with Al Diriyah's 1.30 creates sufficient attacking volume for multiple goals."

More from Bawler