Al Hazem and Al Shabab drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Al Hazem at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 3.2 goals; only 2 were scored. Al Hazem had 8 shots (4 on target) to Al Shabab's 11 (6), with 45% of the ball against 55%. Expected goals finished 1.0 to 0.8.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 60%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Al Hazem and Al Shabab drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Al Hazem at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 3.2 goals; only 2 were scored. Al Hazem had 8 shots (4 on target) to Al Shabab's 11 (6), with 45% of the ball against 55%. Expected goals finished 1.0 to 0.8.
Al Hazem 1–1 Al Shabab, played on 30 Aug 2026 in the SAUDI ARABIA: Saudi Pro League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Al Hazem 39%, the draw 25% and Al Shabab 37%.
Full-time: Possession 45%–55%, Expected goals (xG) 1.0–0.8, Shots 8–11, Shots on target 4–6, Shots inside box 2–7, Big chances 1–3, Corners 3–8, Saves 4–3, Fouls 15–11, Offsides 1–2, Yellow cards 1–3, Red cards 0–1.
Yes — both Al Hazem and Al Shabab scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 64% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Al Hazem or draw 63%, it finished Draw (25% called); Total goals — we said 3.2, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 64%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 83%, it finished Landed.