FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Tuesday, 25 August 2026

Al Shabab 3–3 Al RiyadhMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 25 August 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Shabab or draw at 75%. Bawler had Al Shabab at 52%, the draw at 23% and Al Riyadh at 25%. The match finished 3–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Shabab win
52%
Draw
23%
Result
Al Riyadh win
25%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.0 – 1.4
Total 3.4
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+2.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.9 – 1.2
From the match itself

The match produced 2.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Medium confidence
Al Shabab to win
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 85%, anchored by Al Shabab's 0.65 xG advantage and a combined 3.38 expected goals suggesting a attacking-minded contest."

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