FT · SAUDI ARABIA: Saudi Pro League · Sunday, 30 August 2026

Al Hazem 1–1 Al ShababMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026

> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Al Hazem at 39%, draw at 25%, Al Shabab at 37%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Al Hazem to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Hazem win
39%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
Shabab win
37%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.62 – 1.57
Total 3.19
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.2 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won

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