FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Saturday, 12 September 2026

Al Shabab 0–0 Al FayhaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026

> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Al Shabab at 49%, draw at 25%, Al Fayha at 26%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Al Shabab to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Shabab win
49%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
Fayha win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.71 – 1.19
Total 2.91
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.9 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 2.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 33%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 79% because Al Shabab's 1.72 xG significantly outpaces Al Fayha's 1.19, signalling a likely high-tempo encounter."

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