FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Tuesday, 20 October 2026

Al Taawoun 0–1 Al QadsiahMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 20 October 2026

Al Taawoun
0–1
Al Qadsiah win
Al Qadsiah

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Qadsiah to win at 62%. Bawler had Al Taawoun at 18%, the draw at 20% and Al Qadsiah at 62%. The match finished 0–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Taawoun win
18%
Draw
20%
Al Qadsiah win
62%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.2 – 2.3
Total 3.4
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 0.9
From the match itself

The match produced 2.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Al Qadsiah to win
Pre-match: 62%
Landed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 38%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Al Qadsiah's away win forecast rests on a decisive 1.06 expected-goals advantage, with the model assigning them a 61% win probability against the hosts."

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