What we expect
In plain English
Vanuatu are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model sees around two goals in it.
What would change the call
Vanuatu or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Vanuatu vs New Caledonia?
Bawler's model rates this match: Vanuatu are favoured (42% win probability vs 30% for New Caledonia, 28% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Vanuatu vs New Caledonia?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Vanuatu 1-1 New Caledonia (13.5% probability). Expected total goals: 2.49.
How does Bawler predict Vanuatu vs New Caledonia?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Vanuatu 42%, the draw 28% and New Caledonia 30%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Vanuatu vs New Caledonia?
BTTS: Yes (50% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.37 and away expected goals 1.13.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Vanuatu vs New Caledonia?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.49. The lean is Under 2.5 (likely a tighter affair).