What we expect
In plain English
Solomon Islands are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Vanuatu. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
Solomon Islands to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Solomon Islands vs Vanuatu?
Bawler's model rates this match: Solomon Islands are favoured (75% win probability vs 11% for Vanuatu, 15% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Solomon Islands vs Vanuatu?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Solomon Islands 2-1 Vanuatu (8.4% probability). Expected total goals: 4.00.
How does Bawler predict Solomon Islands vs Vanuatu?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Solomon Islands 75%, the draw 15% and Vanuatu 11%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Solomon Islands vs Vanuatu?
BTTS: Yes (62% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.93 and away expected goals 1.07.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Solomon Islands vs Vanuatu?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 4.00. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).