New Caledonia 0–2 Solomon IslandsMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 21 September 2026

0–2

Solomon Islands win

Solomon Islands

> 🧠 Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had New Caledonia at 90%, draw at 7%, Solomon Islands at 3%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was New Caledonia to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Caledonia win

90%

Draw

Islands win

Actual ✓

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

3.79 – 0.71

Total 4.50

Actual

0 – 2

Total 2 (-2.5 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 2.5 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Home Win

Pre-match: 90%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"New Caledonia's home win is the model's 90% call, driven by a dominant 3.08 expected-goal advantage that reflects their superior attacking threat."

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