What we expect
In plain English
New Caledonia should win this one. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Papua New Guinea. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
New Caledonia to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia?
Bawler's model rates this match: New Caledonia are favoured (79% win probability vs 6% for Papua New Guinea, 15% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Papua New Guinea 0-2 New Caledonia (14.7% probability). Expected total goals: 3.05.
How does Bawler predict Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Papua New Guinea 6%, the draw 15% and New Caledonia 79%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia?
BTTS: No (61% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 0.55 and away expected goals 2.50.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.05. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).