What we expect
In plain English
New Caledonia are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Fiji. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
New Caledonia to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Fiji vs New Caledonia?
Bawler's model rates this match: New Caledonia are favoured (66% win probability vs 15% for Fiji, 19% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Fiji vs New Caledonia?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Fiji 1-2 New Caledonia (9.6% probability). Expected total goals: 3.36.
How does Bawler predict Fiji vs New Caledonia?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Fiji 15%, the draw 19% and New Caledonia 66%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Fiji vs New Caledonia?
BTTS: Yes (58% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.03 and away expected goals 2.33.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Fiji vs New Caledonia?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.36. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).