Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelUruguay on top: we expect them to avoid defeat and do most of the shooting.
Uruguay v Dominican Republic prediction
Uruguay go into this International friendlies match as strong favourites on our numbers: 95% to win, against 1% for Dominican Republic and 4% for a draw. If you want one score, our predicted score is Uruguay 3–0 Dominican Republic, at 15%. Our expected goals are 3.9 for Uruguay and 0.3 for Dominican Republic, 4.2 in all. There is a 23% chance both sides score and three or more goals is 79%.
They have met once on our records, and it ended Uruguay 1–0 Dominican Republic, in Oct 2025.
We expect Uruguay to have 26.3 shots (9.6 on target) and Dominican Republic 8.3 (2.4 on target), and corners at 8.7 to 1.9. That points to Uruguay doing more of the attacking. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Uruguay or Draw, Uruguay Over 20.5 Shots, Uruguay Over 6.5 Shots on Target and Uruguay Over 5.5 Corners. The chance all four land is 53% on our numbers, so the fair price is 5/6, or 1.87.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Uruguay to win is 95% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Head to head
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who will win Uruguay vs Dominican Republic?
Bawler's model rates this match: Uruguay are favoured (95% win probability vs 1% for Dominican Republic, 4% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Uruguay vs Dominican Republic?
Bawler's predicted score is Uruguay 3-0 Dominican Republic: the most likely score if Uruguay win, which is the likeliest result (95%). Our model puts that exact score at 15.2%. Expected total goals: 4.2.
How does Bawler predict Uruguay vs Dominican Republic?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Uruguay 95%, the draw 4% and Dominican Republic 1%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Uruguay vs Dominican Republic?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 23% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Uruguay expecting 3.90 goals and Dominican Republic 0.27.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Uruguay vs Dominican Republic?
Bawler's model expects 4.2 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 79%.
When are the Uruguay v Dominican Republic line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Uruguay v Dominican Republic?
Uruguay or Draw (99%), Uruguay Over 20.5 Shots (77%), Uruguay Over 6.5 Shots on Target (80%), Uruguay Over 5.5 Corners (79%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 53% chance, a fair price of 5/6 (1.87). 18+, please gamble responsibly.